Talent Forecasting — Following the Data to Identify Future Leaders

As AI transforms how work gets done, it is creating new opportunities for CHROs to understand how leadership emerges across the organization. Traditional talent indicators – such as job titles, reporting lines and annual performance reviews – may overlook employees who influence outcomes through collaboration, problem-solving and cross-functional work. By responsibly analyzing these patterns, AI can help CHROs identify emerging leaders earlier and make more informed decisions about succession planning, leadership development and workforce strategy.

To examine how organizations can put this approach into practice, the Gartner New York CHRO Community recently convened a Town Hall on talent forecasting. The conversation centered on three priorities: identifying employees who drive collaboration and business results; spotting leadership potential before traditional promotion cycles; and applying real-time workforce insights to succession planning and workforce strategy. 

One message came through clearly: AI can make talent decisions more precise and forward-looking, but its value depends on thoughtful implementation, responsible data use and the continued application of human judgment.

Jesse Harriott, Head of AI & Data Science and Executive Director of WorkHumaniQ at Workhuman, moderated the program. CHRO community members Tara Favors, CHRO at Mutual of America; Sonja Glatzhofer, EVP & CHRO at Savills; Amanda Gordon, EVP, Head of Human Resources at Related Companies; Joe Sangregorio, SVP, Global CHRO at Curia; Bala Sathyanarayanan, EVP & CHRO at Greif; Ruchita Sharma, CHRO at Hospital For Special Surgery; and Steve Stulbaum, Vice President and Chief People Officer at International Seaways, led the small-group discussions.

Here are five key takeaways from the discussion:

1. Better data is the foundation for AI-enabled talent decisions

CHROs emphasized that the value of AI depends on the quality, integration and reliability of HR data. Many organizations are still working to consolidate information from disparate systems to create a more complete view of their workforce. As one CHRO shared, “We’re trying to pull data from disparate systems into one system for a multi-dimensional view of leadership potential.”

CHROs also noted that incomplete or poor-quality data can reinforce existing bias, making data governance and quality essential to responsible AI-enabled talent decisions.

1. AI can help uncover informal influencers and hidden talent

A major theme was the need to look beyond traditional indicators such as hierarchy, manager recommendations and annual performance reviews. CHROs were interested in identifying employees who influence culture, enable change, work across functions and deliver results – even when they are not highly visible or formally recognized.

As one CHRO said, “We’re using AI to find informal influencers ‘who get stuff done.’” Another shared, “We’re centered on how people who don’t have a title have an impact on culture and change and recognize these unsung heroes.”

1. AI should support – not replace – human judgment

CHROs generally viewed AI as a tool to support leaders and improve decision-making, rather than replace human judgment. Potential applications included summarizing feedback, improving conversations, identifying patterns and enabling more timely decisions. The importance of keeping “the human loop” was repeatedly reinforced.

One CHRO shared a success story: “Our team used AI for goal analysis and identified nearly 700 cases where goals were not SMART (specific, measurable, attainable, relevant, and time-based), enabling managers to build more effective plans for the year.”

1. Adoption requires change management, governance, and practical enablement.

The discussions revealed that organizations are at very different stages of their AI journeys, ranging from limited experimentation to more sophisticated use cases. CHROs emphasized the need for stronger change management to create an environment in which using AI becomes an intuitive part of how employees work and make decisions.
 

There is a need to build muscle memory among business leaders to use technology and AI for decision-making.

HR executives also highlighted the importance of establishing governance for AI tools and providing practical support for adoption. Across the discussions, participants pointed to the role of “AI champions” in helping drive engagement and build organizational capability. One CHRO described how they are “creating libraries of use cases and prompts, with AI champions supporting this effort.”
 

1. AI is prompting a broader rethink of work, skills, talent strategy, and value

The discussion extended beyond tools and automation to consider how AI may reshape work, organizational structures and talent strategies. CHROs raised concerns about roles being reduced or redesigned, particularly the potential for early-career employees to lose opportunities to build foundational skills. They also questioned whether AI investments are generating sufficient business value. One peer group shared, “Most companies were focused on adoption and now on reviewing the ROI against that cost.”

The conversation also raised a fundamental question about how organizations will define talent in the future: “Will AI agents be considered “digital employees?”
 

To collaborate with your CHRO peers on AI, talent strategies, and other critical issues, apply to join a CHRO community. If you are already a community member, sign in to find upcoming opportunities to connect with your peers.